It's Brexit vote day

Trevor · June 23, 2016, 11:53 AM

For anyone interested, the polls are open today in the UK for the Brexit vote. Very early results and trends should start happening about 5:00 EDT.

Trevor · June 23, 2016, 09:46 PM

The Brexit vote has been projected as the winner by several media outlets in the UK now, BBC being one. They've got a reasonably commanding lead.

I didn't think the sheeple would stand up against the status quo forces...that's a VERY rare thing. Bravo to the good folks of Great Britain! If the trend continues and they do in fact leave, it will be a huge victory for them, their children, and their wallets.

headdamage · June 23, 2016, 11:38 PM

I'm not sure if them leaving is a good thing but at least we can now buy rover parts cheaper, the pound is taking a pounding right now.

binch · June 24, 2016, 04:30 AM

Yup, the folks here were neck and neck right down to when I went to bed at 2am. Part prices have dropped like a rock....as low as 1.40 cdn. They will eventually recover from the scepticism but for now we can enjoy great part prices!!!!

B-Red · June 24, 2016, 07:14 AM

It's very clear how media and social media can play into any issue. Through in some prejudice, some "save the planet", some fear, and yes, some religion and boom. You have a social change.

Trump is showing us how twisted democracy has become. Now, we have to see how Europe will become.

As for BritPart and the like, I see few good sales ahead

Cheers

Trevor · June 24, 2016, 07:23 AM

Yes, and fortunately the CAN$ hasn't fallen off much at all, so the pairing is pretty good for part purchasing.

This will rattle things in the short term for the UK, however it will be much better off over the long haul.

What is really in doubt is the the EU. It's an economic basket case run by an unelected bureaucratic monolith the likes of which the world has not seen since the fall of the Soviet Union. Britain had the wisdom and courage to be the first to remove itself from that. The question now is, who's next, and when does the EU ultimately meet it inevitable demise?

The EU was an unworkable model anyway that has to fail. it is simply a question of when the house of cards is to collapse. We still don't know that, but I suspect its closer know.

From a financial markets perspective, the big question is what European zombie banks tip over as a result of this. Of the "northern" banks, Deutschbank is the most vulnerable. The amount of off-book unsecured debt its carrying is in the 10's of trillions, and it's debt to asset ratios in light of that are abysmal. Of the "southern" banks, pick pretty much anything in Italy. Now that the UK taxpayer is no longer backing those entities via the ECB, the picture looks a bit more shaky than just a week ago (and they were pretty shaky for these guys then). Could be another Lehman moment around the corner, but I doubt it.

Trevor · June 24, 2016, 07:34 AM

Quote from: B-Red on June 24, 2016, 07:14 AM

Trump is showing us how twisted democracy has become. Now, we have to see how Europe will become.

I'd spin that another way. Trump is showing how democracy can actually regain its footing. The people haven't had a real hand to play in US elections for a long time. The Trump/Sanders phenomenon is extremely interesting as its a representation of how truly disgruntled the populace is with the status quo elite-driven power structure.

One can agree or disagree with Trump or Sanders' policies, that's not my point. Rather, they are simply a conduit for a wide swath of people who are simply fed up. We can see a similar pattern recently in Alberta with the ousting of the long standing PC's and the entry of the NDP. There is actual grassroots change happening, people are trying to take their power back. Although I may not directly support any of these entities, I'm all for democracy actually working, at least marginally, again.

binch · June 24, 2016, 09:05 AM

It all makes me think of the movie Canadian Bacon with Dan Akroyd and john Candy. The largest army amassed against the US border....hahahhahaha ;D

But this is very interesting to see happen such a big point in history . Speaking of Trump.......I got a pic of Craig standing beside a statue of Stan Laurel (Laurel and Hardy). "It's another fine mess you've gotten us into Stanley!"

;)

Matt H · June 24, 2016, 10:29 AM

Brexit=good from my point of view.

headdamage · June 24, 2016, 04:13 PM

camo388 · June 24, 2016, 10:45 PM

Quote from: binch on June 24, 2016, 04:30 AM
Part prices have dropped like a rock....as low as 1.40 cdn.

My wife and I were watching some of the coverage while getting a tire fixed. When my wife saw the dropping value of the Pound, she suggested I rush out and buy some LR parts. Whoo!
Before the tire was finished, the Pound came up and CDN $ dropped. :o >:( I lost my permission to buy parts >:( :'( :'(
Lost interest in the news after that. ;D

Matt H · June 25, 2016, 09:16 AM

Nobody does "crisis" like the financial markets. The perpetual 'boy who cried wolf' overreacts to everything.

B-Red · June 25, 2016, 01:12 PM

I thought this clip summed it up. Passed on to me by Lloyd.
Now I understand. Enjoy

https://youtu.be/37iHSwA1SwE

binch · June 25, 2016, 04:21 PM

Oh that's a classic Lloyd!!! Can't get much more accurate then that....

But Matt's comment about the fear mongering of the media is right on the button too. I've listened to a couple of people I know here that work for companies and they are concerned about their access to markets being shut down the EU....but at the same time the UK represents a big market too. The instability in the EU is what I'm watching...to see how the whole affair irons out. Very interesting bit of events to witness.

But that video reminded me of short little tune by the Kingston trio called the merry little minuet...from back in the days of folk music and cold wars hhahahh

Trevor · July 05, 2016, 04:27 PM

As things implode through the UK and elsewhere over the next little while, I have a feeling that this entire event will be "rescinded" by those holding the actual reigns of power (i.e. politicians, bureaucrats, banks and corporations). There's going to be some short term financial hurdles that are going to scare the bejeezus out of markets, and possibly cause a full on liquidity event.

Imo that doesn't negate the validity of the decision of the British people...they should leave, it's definitely in their best interest over the long term. However people are very short-sighted when it comes to financial crisis events, assuming it gets to that. And those in power will leverage the crap out of that truism to try and hit the rewind button on this whole "leave" movement.

Point being, I don't believe the fat lady has had her last song yet. There's still a tune or two left in those lungs.