Alberta Land Rover Enthusiasts Club Forum
General => Non Technical Discussion => Topic started by: Trevor on June 23, 2016, 11:53 AM
For anyone interested, the polls are open today in the UK for the Brexit vote. Very early results and trends should start happening about 5:00 EDT.
The Brexit vote has been projected as the winner by several media outlets in the UK now, BBC being one. They've got a reasonably commanding lead.
I didn't think the sheeple would stand up against the status quo forces...that's a VERY rare thing. Bravo to the good folks of Great Britain! If the trend continues and they do in fact leave, it will be a huge victory for them, their children, and their wallets.
I'm not sure if them leaving is a good thing but at least we can now buy rover parts cheaper, the pound is taking a pounding right now.
Yup, the folks here were neck and neck right down to when I went to bed at 2am. Part prices have dropped like a rock....as low as 1.40 cdn. They will eventually recover from the scepticism but for now we can enjoy great part prices!!!!
It's very clear how media and social media can play into any issue. Through in some prejudice, some "save the planet", some fear, and yes, some religion and boom. You have a social change.
Trump is showing us how twisted democracy has become. Now, we have to see how Europe will become.
As for BritPart and the like, I see few good sales ahead
Cheers
Yes, and fortunately the CAN$ hasn't fallen off much at all, so the pairing is pretty good for part purchasing.
This will rattle things in the short term for the UK, however it will be much better off over the long haul.
What is really in doubt is the the EU. It's an economic basket case run by an unelected bureaucratic monolith the likes of which the world has not seen since the fall of the Soviet Union. Britain had the wisdom and courage to be the first to remove itself from that. The question now is, who's next, and when does the EU ultimately meet it inevitable demise?
The EU was an unworkable model anyway that has to fail. it is simply a question of when the house of cards is to collapse. We still don't know that, but I suspect its closer know.
From a financial markets perspective, the big question is what European zombie banks tip over as a result of this. Of the "northern" banks, Deutschbank is the most vulnerable. The amount of off-book unsecured debt its carrying is in the 10's of trillions, and it's debt to asset ratios in light of that are abysmal. Of the "southern" banks, pick pretty much anything in Italy. Now that the UK taxpayer is no longer backing those entities via the ECB, the picture looks a bit more shaky than just a week ago (and they were pretty shaky for these guys then). Could be another Lehman moment around the corner, but I doubt it.
Quote from: B-Red on June 24, 2016, 07:14 AM
Trump is showing us how twisted democracy has become. Now, we have to see how Europe will become.
I'd spin that another way. Trump is showing how democracy can actually regain its footing. The people haven't had a real hand to play in US elections for a long time. The Trump/Sanders phenomenon is extremely interesting as its a representation of how truly disgruntled the populace is with the status quo elite-driven power structure.
One can agree or disagree with Trump or Sanders' policies, that's not my point. Rather, they are simply a conduit for a wide swath of people who are simply fed up. We can see a similar pattern recently in Alberta with the ousting of the long standing PC's and the entry of the NDP. There is actual grassroots change happening, people are trying to take their power back. Although I may not directly support any of these entities, I'm all for democracy actually working, at least marginally, again.
It all makes me think of the movie Canadian Bacon with Dan Akroyd and john Candy. The largest army amassed against the US border....hahahhahaha ;D
But this is very interesting to see happen such a big point in history . Speaking of Trump.......I got a pic of Craig standing beside a statue of Stan Laurel (Laurel and Hardy). "It's another fine mess you've gotten us into Stanley!"
;)
Brexit=good from my point of view.
(http://i92.photobucket.com/albums/l38/headdamage/boris-johnson-010%201_zps94ciyuy1.jpg) (http://s92.photobucket.com/user/headdamage/media/boris-johnson-010%201_zps94ciyuy1.jpg.html)
Quote from: binch on June 24, 2016, 04:30 AM
Part prices have dropped like a rock....as low as 1.40 cdn.
My wife and I were watching some of the coverage while getting a tire fixed. When my wife saw the dropping value of the Pound, she suggested I rush out and buy some LR parts. Whoo!
Before the tire was finished, the Pound came up and CDN $ dropped. :o >:( I lost my permission to buy parts >:( :'( :'(
Lost interest in the news after that. ;D
Nobody does "crisis" like the financial markets. The perpetual 'boy who cried wolf' overreacts to everything.
I thought this clip summed it up. Passed on to me by Lloyd.
Now I understand. Enjoy
https://youtu.be/37iHSwA1SwE
Oh that's a classic Lloyd!!! Can't get much more accurate then that....
But Matt's comment about the fear mongering of the media is right on the button too. I've listened to a couple of people I know here that work for companies and they are concerned about their access to markets being shut down the EU....but at the same time the UK represents a big market too. The instability in the EU is what I'm watching...to see how the whole affair irons out. Very interesting bit of events to witness.
But that video reminded me of short little tune by the Kingston trio called the merry little minuet...from back in the days of folk music and cold wars hhahahh
As things implode through the UK and elsewhere over the next little while, I have a feeling that this entire event will be "rescinded" by those holding the actual reigns of power (i.e. politicians, bureaucrats, banks and corporations). There's going to be some short term financial hurdles that are going to scare the bejeezus out of markets, and possibly cause a full on liquidity event.
Imo that doesn't negate the validity of the decision of the British people...they should leave, it's definitely in their best interest over the long term. However people are very short-sighted when it comes to financial crisis events, assuming it gets to that. And those in power will leverage the crap out of that truism to try and hit the rewind button on this whole "leave" movement.
Point being, I don't believe the fat lady has had her last song yet. There's still a tune or two left in those lungs.
What is most humorous is the panic when nothing has happened. There was a referendum. Before anything can change, a new government needs to be elected and then negotiations need to start with the EU and then something might happen. This is a couple of years minimum if it does happen.
There's quite a bit of capital running for cover. The 3 largest property funds in the UK are experiencing a run on their deposits. To counter that they've frozen about 10 billion and aren't allowing withdrawls.
The real threat is in the European banks though. They're a pile of kindling waiting for a match. Deutchbank is so over exposed in the shadow banking sector, with unsecured dirivitive asset exposure estimated north of $50 trillion (edit: I had this figure to low in my original post, it is now corrected), that it would be under right now if it weren't for the ECB quietly propping it up. Every bank in Italy is basically garbage, and they also survive only because of european central bank support.
This is a pretty common theme in Europe, and that's what's got markets a bit on edge. The threat is always liquidity. In our fractional reserve system the minute money stops moving freely, the entire house of cards collapses. We saw that start to happen when Lehman went under...basically banks wouldn't pay other banks, and that very quickly exposes the extremely weak ones. That's when things like this start to get quite interesting. it's not about the politicians deciding how to have the UK exit the EU. Rather its about where capital sees the most risk leading up to that, and most importantly where it starts to run for cover. That's the spawn of a possible liquidity crisis.
This could get quite interesting long before the politicians even have a chance to meet.
Well from what I see... life is going on as usual for the small fry and the steak and guiness pie is still a good deal at the George and Dragon pub ;D
We are going to see some good prices on the last few orders I've placed.
One of the big problems we are hereing more about is the petty squabbling by inbred brits being bullies wanting to "send them all back" mentality. That is truely a scarey few morons out there.
But one things for sure...The brits will adapt to it ;)
Quote from: binch on July 06, 2016, 02:08 AM
One of the big problems we are hereing more about is the petty squabbling by inbred brits being bullies wanting to "send them all back" mentality. That is truely a scarey few morons out there.
It's rather ironic when you look at what's transpired. If the EU had a sensible immigration policy (i.e. one that did not force member states to accept immigration dictates from the Brussels bureaucrats), the UK would have likely stayed in the EU. It was probably the single biggest issue that pushed the "Leave" side to victory. However even in the early stages after the Brexit vote the EU is again pushing its open door immigration approach as a requirement for Britain should it want to negotiate a Norway-style agreement. Admittedly a non-started for the negotiations.
Unfortunately the political correctness of the day and the meme-don't-hurt-my-feelings younger generation has made it a bad word to be proud of your nation....or what you view as your nation. And that's really starting to stir people up, especially your middle aged and older individuals who most connect to a more traditional view of their nation. Brexit is a good example of it in action, as are the countless other nationalist movements gaining popularity throughout Europe. We also see it closer to home with the support Trump has generated in the US. There's a growing segment of the population that are tired of being told that believing, as an example, English Canada is a nation first and foremost of WASP's and/or or a melting pot of European-centric cultures, and that its culture as such is important and should be protected, is offensive and not accommodating to immigrants (or greater immigration) and therefore must be quashed and shunned out of public discourse.
It does feel like it's getting ever closer to a tipping point in many places around the globe. It's a hot issue to be sure, and many are very passionate about their beliefs.
Seems like the all the members of the brain trust behind the exit are jumping ship now that they won and don't know what to do with the victory.
For sure immigration had its part to play in brexit, but despite what the popular media would have you believe (with their interviews of neo-nazi types). From what I've heard from family and friends, for the 'common man' it's more about EU sponsorship of the dismantling of Britain. So many British and even international company's have left the UK with the help of an EU grant it's crazy. Nobody on the street really cares very much if the big shot business folks are worried about brexit. They have been watching that small section of society get richer and richer with EU deals while the average joe has been finding it harder and harder to make ends meet.
Even in our own small Land Rover world there is an example of this. The recent commitment by TATA (JLR) to build a new factory in Eastern Europe instead of the U.K. was aided by a EU grant.
On the up side Britain's traditional trading partners in the commonwealth (that the UK had to give up for EU membership) are already waiting to talk trade.
Trevor is right about demographic's though. Older folks who can remember life before the the EU took over remember it was pretty good really and how much has been sacrificed for membership.
Quote from: Matt H on July 06, 2016, 12:32 PM
For sure immigration had its part to play in brexit, but despite what the popular media would have you believe (with their interviews of neo-nazi types). From what I've heard from family and friends, for the 'common man' it's more about EU sponsorship of the dismantling of Britain. So many British and even international company's have left the UK with the help of an EU grant it's crazy. Nobody on the street really cares very much if the big shot business folks are worried about brexit. They have been watching that small section of society get richer and richer with EU deals while the average joe has been finding it harder and harder to make ends meet.
Even in our own small Land Rover world there is an example of this. The recent commitment by TATA (JLR) to build a new factory in Eastern Europe instead of the U.K. was aided by a EU grant.
On the up side Britain's traditional trading partners in the commonwealth (that the UK had to give up for EU membership) are already waiting to talk trade.
Trevor is right about demographic's though. Older folks who can remember life before the the EU took over remember it was pretty good really and how much has been sacrificed for membership.
Many of the guys I know working in the trading industry have long referred to the EU as the "4th Reich". They use to term jokingly, but it's also a valid representation of what the EU has become. Germany couldn't conquer Europe militarily, so they did the next best thing, and conquered it bureaucratically and economically.
I've maintained from the get-go of the entire Brexit movement that the big loser will not be Britain at all. Rather it is the EU, and more specifically Germany, that has the most to lose. There could be a decent amount of turmoil along the way, but in the end I think the UK will be a far better place now that it can re-establish itself.
I think after all the Eurocrats have gotten over their hurt feelings and realize that they export way more goods into Britain than Britain exports to the EU they will put aside their ridiculas demands on immigration etc and start talking turkey. The U.K. Is just too big a market to shun.
And even if they do give Britain the cold shoulder so what? Perhaps the UK could start trading independently again and perhaps even produce some of the products it currently imports at home? Radical thinking I know. They just need to grow a pair and start taxing Chinese goods appropriately.